Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 2.034026 2.153784 2.279714 2.422489 2.580466 2.750604 2.948622
2025-08-31 1.857670 2.022970 2.205135 2.422513 2.677200 2.969163 3.333685
2025-09-07 1.752773 1.945140 2.164048 2.434910 2.765868 3.163801 3.689367
2025-09-14 1.648507 1.854508 2.094485 2.399553 2.784502 3.265141 3.929942
2025-09-21 1.560985 1.775272 2.029658 2.360309 2.788962 3.341825 4.138541
2025-09-28 1.485478 1.704726 1.969140 2.319365 2.784109 3.400942 4.323574
2025-10-05 1.455408 1.687225 1.971823 2.357019 2.882280 3.603684 4.733296
2025-10-12 1.428076 1.670833 1.973761 2.392072 2.977375 3.808310 5.170447
2025-10-19 1.401070 1.652894 1.971822 2.420444 3.063498 4.005880 5.622452
2025-10-26 1.361907 1.617132 1.944145 2.410946 3.093218 4.119559 5.949242
2025-11-02 1.324988 1.582514 1.915970 2.398411 3.116404 4.223479 6.272155
2025-11-09 1.284052 1.540885 1.876300 2.366950 3.108179 4.275085 6.505139
2025-11-16 1.245214 1.501351 1.838738 2.337802 3.103366 4.334836 6.770073
2025-11-23 1.218843 1.477573 1.821775 2.337583 3.143260 4.473209 7.216299
2025-11-30 1.198308 1.460771 1.813514 2.349282 3.202144 4.649417 7.776207
2025-12-07 1.164554 1.424709 1.776657 2.315924 3.185131 4.687644 8.038912
2025-12-14 1.131609 1.388745 1.738620 2.278877 3.159400 4.707017 8.261620
2025-12-21 1.099960 1.353669 1.700663 2.240202 3.128416 4.713459 8.454815
2025-12-28 1.092568 1.352019 1.710524 2.275771 3.225406 4.973916 9.347148
2026-01-04 1.084789 1.349451 1.718748 2.308864 3.320143 5.241169 10.343737
2026-01-11 1.075549 1.344437 1.723037 2.335636 3.405335 5.499522 11.409445
2026-01-18 1.056905 1.325440 1.705861 2.326675 3.424817 5.620584 12.095973
2026-01-25 1.038361 1.306082 1.687491 2.314847 3.438036 5.729265 12.782694